The Great Game in the Arctic: Why the region is the next flashpoint between superpowers

As global powers compete for dominance over vast resources and strategic routes, China and India too are eager to take on a larger role in this pivotal region.

The Arctic region, still relatively unexplored, is recognized as a rich repository of untapped natural resources, particularly oil, gas, and marine life. It is also historically viewed as a potential flashpoint for great-power conflict.

Russia has long maintained a dominant presence in the area. However, NATO’s expansion northward has compelled Moscow to significantly increase its military footprint. Growing superpower China has shown an escalating interest in Arctic affairs, while India, despite its geographical distance, has also established a foothold in the region.

With increased US confrontation with both China and Russia, these two powers have fostered greater cooperation and coordination in Arctic matters.

Covering over one sixth of the Earth’s landmass, the Arctic region encompasses the North Pole and is characterized by vast expanses of floating ice, with ridges that can reach up to 20 meters thick. It is estimated to hold nearly 22% of the world’s undiscovered oil and natural gas reserves, with Russia accounting for 52% of the Arctic’s total energy resources and Norway holding 12%.

Global industrialization and rising emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have resulted in increased temperatures, leading to rapid glacial melting. In 2024, the minimum extent of Arctic sea ice was recorded at 4.28 million square kilometers – approximately 1.8 million square kilometers below the long-term average. The rate of sea ice reduction is nearly 13% per decade, suggesting that the Arctic could become ice-free during the summer by 2040.

The consequences of melting ice are profound, potentially raising sea levels and threatening many island territories and coastal cities. Climate change and global warming have garnered international attention, highlighted by discussions at recent forums such as COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Unlike Antarctica, which is governed by a 1959 treaty allowing only peaceful activities, no analogous treaty exists for the Arctic. Established in 1996, the Arctic Council addresses issues pertinent to Arctic nations, comprising the United States, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Russia. Observer countries must acknowledge the sovereignty and jurisdiction of Arctic states while recognizing the extensive legal framework governing the Arctic Ocean. In May 2013, India became the 11th country to gain permanent observer status at the Arctic Council.

Both Russia and the United States have long maintained military bases and surveillance systems in the Arctic, including nuclear deterrent capabilities.

Russia has operated nuclear-powered icebreakers in the region for some time. Although the Arctic Military Environmental Cooperation (AMEC) agreement between Russia, the US, and Norway facilitated the decommissioning of certain Soviet and US assets, the increasing interest from additional nations has sparked a new Cold War dynamics between the two primary powers.

The cooperative atmosphere that once prevailed has deteriorated, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions stemming from the situation in Ukraine since 2014.

Arctic Sea Routes

Increased ice melting has begun opening the Arctic region for longer periods of time in summer months. There are three main routes that could revolutionise the international commercial shipping industry in the 21st century.

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) lies along the arctic coast of Russia. Ice clears up here first and therefore is available for longer. It also has the highest commercial potential: the route reduces the maritime distance between East Asia and Europe from 21,000 kilometres via the Suez Canal to 12,800 km. It implies a transit time saving of 10-15 days. NSR was used extensively for natural resource extraction and transportation during the Soviet Era.

In 2009, two German ships led by a Russian icebreaker made the first commercial journey across the NSR from Busan in South Korea, to Rotterdam in Netherlands, establishing good commercial prospects.

The North West Passage (NWP) is another route between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, crossing Canada’s Arctic Archipelago that was first used in 2007. It may open for more regular use soon. While Canada claims it as an internal waterway, the US and others insist it is an international transit passage, and must allow free and unencumbered movement.

This route could reduce shipping time between the Middle East and Western Europe to around 13,600 km compared to 24,000 km via the Panama Canal, however parts of the route are just 15 metres deep, thus reducing its viability. China seems to be interested in using this passage to eastern parts of US, as the Panama Canal too has ship size and tonnage restrictions.

The third one is a potential Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) which could use the central part of the Arctic to directly link the Bering Strait and the Atlantic Ocean port of Murmansk. This route is hypothetical for now and may appear as climate change progresses.

Moscow’s strategy

Russia is the largest stakeholder in the Arctic, a region that contributes approximately 10% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and accounts for 20% of all Russian exports. The Arctic has gained renewed significance in the 2023 version of the Kremlin’s Foreign Policy Concept, which emphasizes the preservation of peace and stability, increased environmental sustainability, and reduced threats to national security.

Development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) remains a key objective, with Russia reaffirming its commitment to international law in the Arctic. The Concept reinforces the authority of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) to govern interstate relations in the Arctic Ocean and expresses Russia’s openness to “mutually beneficial cooperation with non-Arctic states that pursue a constructive policy towards Russia.”

Russia’s New Arctic Policy 2035, signed in 2020, explicitly asserts its sovereignty and territorial integrity over the NSR, much to the dismay of the United States, which advocates for the NSR to remain an international waterway under broader Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs).

Moscow has threatened to use force against vessels that do not comply with Russian regulations in the NSR. Despite Russian overtures suggesting a willingness to cooperate, the West consistently portrays Russia as the villain in narratives about the Arctic.

A new player

China, which considers itself a “Near-Arctic State,” seeks to be a stakeholder in the Arctic. In January 2018, China released its official Arctic Policy paper, highlighting its interests in Arctic resources and the need to develop infrastructure for research, military, and other purposes.

China invests more than the United States in Arctic research and operates a Polar Research Institute in Shanghai. It possesses a fleet of research vessels and two MV Xue Long icebreakers. Additionally, China established the Arctic Yellow River Station in 2004. In 2018, COSCO Shipping Corporation Limited, based in Shanghai, made eight transits through the Arctic between Europe and China.

China’s “Polar Silk Road,” launched in 2018 as a joint initiative with Russia, aims to enhance connectivity in the region. Like Russia, China also aspires to deploy nuclear-powered icebreakers in the Arctic, becoming only the second country to do so. However, Denmark, encouraged by the United States, rejected China’s offer to purchase an old military base in Greenland and build an international airport there.

India’s interest

As a rising major power, India aims to become a significant player in the Arctic. It has operated the “Himadri” permanent Arctic research station in Svalbard, Norway, since July 2008. Svalbard, the northernmost year-round settlement on Earth, has a population of about 2,200 and is nearly 1,200 kilometers from the North Pole.

India’s research focuses on monitoring fjord dynamics, glaciers, carbon recycling, glaciology, geology, atmospheric pollution, and space weather, among other areas. In 2014, India established an underwater moored observatory called “IndARC” in Kongsfjorden, Svalbard, aiming to find linkages between Arctic meteorological parameters and the southwest monsoon. Additionally, India’s ONGC Videsh has shown interest in investing in Russia’s Arctic liquefied natural gas projects.

India’s Arctic policy, titled “India and the Arctic: Building a Partnership for Sustainable Development,” was released in March 2022. This document outlines India’s interests, which include economic and resource prospects, sea connectivity, and reinforcing its presence in the region.

The Arctic becomes increasingly important for New Delhi as it seeks to expand sea trade routes to access more markets for its growing exports, and secure passages for shipments of oil and other vital commodities.

Both India and Russia have made significant progress in promoting the 7,200 kilometre International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) that could move freight between India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia and Europe, greatly reducing cost and time, as well as the Chennai-Vladivostok corridor, which could become a part of NSR.

Recent developments indicate that New Delhi is engaged in discussions with Moscow regarding the construction of icebreakers at Indian shipyards, highlighting India’s commitment to Arctic engagement and the potential for expanded cooperation.

India may also explore mining opportunities in the Arctic region. Despite widespread international calls for a moratorium on deep-sea mining. Notably, Norway aims to be the first nation to initiate commercial activities in this domain – a critical move given its membership in the Arctic Council and significant role in Arctic geopolitics.

The next great game

The Arctic continues to attract researchers, as “the next great game” unfolds. Unlike Antarctica, Arctic states possess established territorial claims under the Law of the Sea regime. Consequently, discussions surrounding great power politics, competition, and conflict in the Arctic are increasingly capturing the attention of strategic analysts.

Russia’s Northern Fleet is strategically positioned across the Arctic and holds a dominant stance in the region. The US became an Arctic state following its purchase of Alaska from Russia for $7.2 million in 1867. Canada and Northern European nations have substantial stakes in Arctic affairs, prompting the US to deepen its alliances with these countries.

Notably, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) offers a transportation route that is 37% shorter for cargo traveling from London to Yokohama, Japan, compared to the Suez Canal. Russia seeks to leverage this advantage economically through a robust support infrastructure along its Arctic coastline. Moscow perceives the US and its NATO partners as threats to its Arctic ambitions.

As the great Arctic race progresses, Russia’s resource-driven economy leads in exploitation efforts, having secured rights to approximately 1.7 million square kilometers of seabed. Moreover, Russia has revived several Soviet-era military bases and modernized its naval capabilities, now operating seven nuclear-powered icebreakers alongside around 30 diesel-powered vessels. In contrast, the US and China each operate only two diesel-powered icebreakers. NATO has also intensified military exercises in the Barents Sea and Scandinavian regions.

China views the Arctic as a vital source for energy and minerals, while India hopes for a collaborative regional approach rather than conflict. Nonetheless, the intensifying global competition between the US, Russia, and China is already manifesting significant consequences.

While the US holds the title of global superpower, Russia has emerged as the preeminent power in the Arctic. With strong ties to Russia and a recent order for four icebreakers, India is well-positioned to play a relevant role in Arctic affairs. India must remain actively engaged and ensure its foothold in the Arctic, as its interests extend far beyond mere observation.

Image credit: Annie Spratt