The Labour Party has overtaken National in the polls for the first time since April 2023, according to the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll, a shift that spells trouble for National leader Christopher Luxon as both major parties prepare for their caucus retreats next week.
Labour rose 4 percentage points to 30.9%, while National dropped 4.6 points to 29.6%. The poll also shows the ACT Party falling 2.2 points to 10.8%, while the Greens increased by 1.2 points to 9.5%. New Zealand First made a significant gain, climbing 2.7 points to 8.1%, and Te Pāti Māori dipped slightly to 5.3%.
These shifts in party support translate into a notable change in parliamentary seat projections. The Centre-right bloc of National and ACT, now at 62 seats, would require New Zealand First to form a government. Meanwhile, the Centre-left bloc of Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori has risen to 58 seats, marking a six-seat swing.
More troubling for the government than the party vote numbers is the public’s worsening perception of the country’s direction. The poll shows a dramatic 17-point drop in the net “right track/wrong track” measure, with 53% of respondents now believing New Zealand is headed in the wrong direction—a rise of 11 points since December. Only 39% think the country is on the right track, down 7 points, while 12% remain unsure.
The survey highlights that economic issues are top of mind for voters. Cost-of-living and economic management were identified as the most important concerns by a combined 40% of respondents. By contrast, Māori and Treaty issues, which have garnered significant legacy mainstream media attention, were cited by just 8% as their primary voting concern.
The poll suggests discontent with National’s economic strategy under finance spokesperson Nicola Willis, as well as frustration with government spending. December’s series of poor economic news and the strain of holiday-season expenses appear to have left many voters feeling pessimistic about the country’s economic trajectory.
As Parliament prepares to resume on January 27, both Labour and National face mounting pressure to address voters’ growing concerns. For Christopher Luxon and the National Party, the results underscore a critical need to reassess their strategy as the economic mood continues to shape the political landscape.
Luxon has to go.
Taxpayers' Union–Curia Poll: Labour passes National for first time in nearly two years, New Zealand on ‘wrong’ track , via @nzherald https://t.co/7yYzbaWiio
— Cam Slater (@kaiviti_cam) January 17, 2025
A hell of a lot of people out there are feeling rhe squeeze while Luxins photo ops are just cringe
Time to activate plan B.
Luxon the woke globalist pussy needs to far cough, probably some Diddy party videos of him somewhere holding him to ransom. National is just Liebore in blue, both run by the cabal.
How friggin’ stupid can sheeple be?
What has to happen before they wake up?
Remember, they are all on the same side, they the political class, and we the citizen class.
Oh look, fresh narrative seeding for the next fake election 😒👍
In the blue corner, we have Chris 1 fighting for big business, climate change and forever migration 🥊
In the red corner, Chris 2 will slug it out in the name of mass censorship, men in dresses, and the return of Covid communism 🥊
It’s gonna be the fight of the century, ladies and gentlemen. Book your tickets now!!
(All candidates brought to you by Blackrock)
💯 😂😂
I think you mean “bought” to you by blackrock
I see what you did there! Brought AND bought!
“Cost-of-living and economic management were identified as the most important concerns by a combined 40% of respondents”.
Do these 40% really understand what the root cause of inflation is?
Collectively, central banks continue to lower the purchasing power of their respective currencies, via the creation of more of their product. Moreover, as they lower rates, this mechanism gets worse faster.
Devaluing the currency is grand theft on a world-wide scale, and no one is talking about it?
Cost of living/rising prices are a direct result of the currency being debased. Count on more political trickery (lying) to continue to assign blame as a deception to keep you from understanding what “the root cause” for inflation really is.
Luxon doesn’t understand he is running a country, not an airline for profit.
People are poor because Luxon wants to get his books in order first and forgot business only pays tax on profit. Effectively, business receives tax back on losses. Then they go bankrupt. Now there is no employment.
Government governs. Not places normal hard-working citizens into debt.
Message to the National MP’s. Replace Luxton and the minister of finance, or expect to be replaced yourself.