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‘Inflation Shocker’ – Fed Farmers

Inflation news

Annual inflation in the September 2022 quarter was 7.2%, much higher than all expectations and heaping pressure on the Reserve Bank to stamp harder on inflationary pressures, say Federated Farmers.

Annual inflation in the September 2022 quarter was 7.2%, much higher than all expectations and heaping pressure on the Reserve Bank to stamp harder on inflationary pressures.

Statistics NZ’s Consumer Price Index increased by a very strong 2.2% in the September quarter compared to the June quarter, driven by:

  • Food rising 4.1%, with fruit and vegetables the main culprit up 17.0%.
  • Housing and household utilities rising 2.3%, with home ownership up 3.3% and property rates and related services up 7.1%.
  • Transport rising 1.7%, with passenger transport services up 18.4% mainly due to higher air fares. This was partly offset by a 2.5% fall for private transport supplies and services on the back of lower petrol prices (but diesel prices were higher).

The CPI’s 7.2% annual rate, comparing September 2022 to September 2021 was driven by:

  • Housing and household utilities rising 8.7%, with home ownership up 17.0% and rentals for housing up 4.6%.
  • Transport rising 11.7%, with private transport supplies and services up 15.6%.
  • Food rising 8.0%, with fruit and vegetables up 13.8% and grocery food up 8.0%

The inflation outcome was much higher than market expectations of between 6.5% to 6.9% and Reserve Bank’s own expectation of 6.4%.

Worryingly, inflation is looking increasingly broad-based. Annual non-tradable inflation (goods and services not subject to international competition) was 6.6%. Although this was lower than the 8.1% rate for tradable inflation, it was up from the June quarter and was the highest non-tradable rate since the series began in 2000. Non-tradable inflation is arguably the part of inflation that New Zealand policy makers can influence the most.

Meanwhile, trimmed-mean measures, which exclude extreme price movements, ranged from 6.4% to 7.0%. This compares to a range of 5.8% to 7.0% last quarter so it shows upward pressure on core measures.

Tradable inflation has been under pressure from the weaker exchange rate. Over the past 12 months the NZ Dollar has fallen by 19% against the US Dollar and by 9% against the broader basket of currencies in the Trade Weighted Index. Looking ahead the falling NZ Dollar will put further upward pressure on tradable inflation.

The upshot of all this is that the Reserve Bank will be under pressure to increase the OCR more rapidly. It could also end up exceeding 5% next year. The chances have increased of there being a 75 point increase at its final review for the year on 23 November.

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6 COMMENTS

  1. Inflation, Is it a real problem? they dont calculate rents, houses or fuel into inflation and those have been inflated for years so who is inflation a problem for?

  2. More to come next year, Most pundits are predicting it. US will do its interest rate hikes to bring down their own inflation or elsethey will face the collapse of their fiat dollar. US housing market is expected to dip below the pre-pandemic levels. By increasing their interest rate, US will pass on their inflation to other countries, which will force UK/EU/CANADA/AUSTRALIA/NZ will be forced to increase thie interest rates. The day of cheap money will come at an end in a matter of two years. Those who over-extended will pay the penalty. If your debt levels are high, reduce it right now by selling part of the assets or else it will be painfull end in the next 2 years. There is lots of demand but limited supply. There is no way supply can be increased dramattically and so demand will be dampened by rate hikes. No escape.

  3. How do you spot a liar ? Answer – as soon as they open their mouths and spruik the magic words ‘climate change’. There is no such thing as ‘climate change’ yes the climate changes year to year season to season but the co2 they spruik about being bad for the atmosphere is the source of all plant life we need more of it. I know this will be hard to get your head around but just do the best you can. ‘Climate change’ was invented by the elite to bilk the masses. If NZs new insane tax on famers goes ahead try to get you head around $20 flat whites and $50 rump steaks. This is all in the UN WHO WEFs hymn book to cause disruption and chaos in the food supply chain in the mistaken and flawed belief that eating meat is bad for you. Once you control the food supply food you control the people. Always remember their real goal is depopulation The people have to find ways which are not easy to not play their game. Supermarkets have enormous financial and Political power the right boycotts of the right products usually gets their attention. Protests in NZ have had only limited impacts because as we have seen the Corrupt Tyrannical Genocidal Govt. is prepared to go to any lengths to retain their narrative including importing UN Terror Police to quell any uprising or protest. For a ‘Groundswell movement to work with any effectiveness Farmers would have to withdraw their products from the market for a month or so but that would be playing right into their hands. This only leaves only one real alternative and that is to vote the Govt. out or physically throw them out into the street where they really really belong. When voting remember not vote for the party but the candidate half them are WEF plants stealing elections. The current NZ Govt are not governing for the people by the people to serve the people anymore they are governing for themselves by themselves to serve their WHO UN and WEF masters.

  4. The hidden agenda is to bankrupt farmers and transfer the productive land to globalists. Dont be surprised if food producing land becomes foresty. Wealth hiding and hedging have to be hassle free for global rich, and so keeping or cponverting vast land as foresty venture can be managed from overseas.

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