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Guy Hatchard
Guy Hatchardhttps://hatchardreport.com/
Guy Hatchard PhD is a statistician and former senior manager at Genetic ID, a global food safety testing and certification laboratory. Guy's book 'Your DNA Diet' is available on Amazon.com.

Are unvaccinated people at serious risk from Omicron in NZ?

Many people have been asking me about numerous recent articles in mainstream media reporting high risks for unvaccinated people and enhanced protection for the boosted.

Accurate statistical analysis takes time to compile, fortunately I have been helped by people working hard behind the scenes.

According to an assessment of Ministry of Health data from 9th March 2022, unvaccinated individuals are 200% more likely to be hospitalised than the boosted. At first this sounds impressive.

Epidemiologist Dr. Michael Baker thinks so. He says (11th March, 2022) that, without vaccination, New Zealand would have much higher hospitalisations and deaths:

“It would be much higher if it wasn’t for that. It would be not manageable, absolutely unmanageable if it weren’t for vaccination.”

It is actually a relief to see that Michael Baker is referring to Ministry of Health data. A few days earlier, modeler Dr. Shaun Hendy’s team, at government funded Te Punaha Matatini, sought to frighten the whole population, just as they did when they famously predicted 80,000 NZ covid deaths. They suggest that the unvaccinated are 1200% more likely to be hospitalised than people with two mRNA doses and 2700% more likely to go to hospital with Omicron than the boosted (Stuff, 17th February, 2022).

The scientific flaws in their argument are so large and obvious, it was certainly irresponsible of Stuff to report this. The critical components of successful modelling are accurate assumptions and real world data comparisons. Neither were satisfied in this case. Te Punaha Matatini’s predictions are completely contradicted by the data referred to by Michael Baker.

There are also flaws in the arguments presented by Michael Baker et al., although they are not so immediately obvious. Baker reports relative risks, without commenting on absolute risks. This is a statistical sleight of hand used to make a risk factor appear more significant than it actually is. You see it all the time in news stories about food: “Why eating just one sausage a day raises your cancer risk by 20 per cent”. Twenty percent is the relative risk, and it sounds scarily high. The reported finding actually translates to an absolute risk increase from 6 people in 10,000 up to 7 people in 10,000. You might drop your sausage for 20%, but if you knew the increased absolute risk was only 1 part in 10,000, you might be tempted to hang on to it, and even add a slice of bacon.

What is the absolute risk difference for Covid-associated hospitalisation?

The graph below (data from MoH – spreadsheet here) shows that there are 4 hospitalisations per 100,000 unvaccinated people, compared to 2 per 100,000 boosted people, and 3 for any vaccination on March 9th 2022.

Unvaccinated Omicron risk news

There were 21,038 cases announced on the 9th of March. Dr Nick Wilson believes that the true numbers of covid infection are currently (as of 9th March, 2022) four to five times higher than the reported numbers. Using the conservative end of Dr Nick Wilson’s prediction: 4 x 21,038 = 84,152 cases. This equates to 2% of the total population of 5,084,000 being infected.

So when 2% of the population is infected the percentage of covid positive people in hospital in each group will be:

  • 0.004% of unvaccinated people
  • 0.002% of boosted people
  • 0.003% of any-vaccination people

This means there is an absolute risk difference for hospitalisation between the unvaccinated and the boosted of 0.002%. This means the apparent increased risk of hospitalisation for the unvaccinated compared to vaccinated is somewhere between 1 and 2 per 100,000 people. A very small increased risk. But is even this very small elevated risk a reliable figure? No it is not.

There is a great deal of volatility in hospitalisation data. The absolute numbers of hospitalisations are so small that the differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated outcomes are within the margin of error (you will be familiar with this concept from the margin of error always quoted along with political polls). A great deal also depends on the definitions of vaccinated and unvaccinated and the ways they are counted which the MoH have not disclosed. There is no data on who was in hospital with Covid and who because of Covid. For example, are pregnant women in hospital to give birth who test positive for Omicron counted as Covid hospitalisations?

The cost of Covid

The cost of NZ Covid policy currently amounts to more than $64 billion over two years ($13,000 for every man, woman, and child—all borrowed money which will have to be repaid by us all going forward). The adverse social, and mental costs of Covid are incalculable. The damage to small businesses and the economy cannot at this stage be reversed. We face years of rebuilding in many cases from scratch. The loss of employment among the unvaccinated who are largely people used to managing their own health with a lower cost to the state. The devastating social divisions, even among families, based on misleading government advertising about Covid-19 effectiveness and safety. The high incidence of adverse health effects following Covid-19 vaccination, which according to Medsafe is running at 30x traditional vaccines.

We also have to realise that the effectiveness of the booster wanes rapidly, whereas natural immunity acquired after infection lasts longer. In the UK, official UKHSA and Scotland Health figures record that the boosted are now more likely than the unvaccinated to be hospitalised with Omicron. Bearing in mind that many (most? we don’t know) of the Covid hospitalisations will be with Covid, not because of Covid, we need to ask ourselves:

Was a 0.002% absolute risk reduction worth it?

No other conditions such as cancer or heart disease benefit from government funding to the extent that Covid has. Cancer kills 9,000 NZers a year, 200 times the rate of Covid deaths. Even a small portion of the $64 billion Covid-19 government fund would have updated and transformed our health service and paid for modern preventive initiatives, providing world standard healthcare for the whole population well into the 21st century.

Guy Hatchard PhD was formerly a senior manager at Genetic ID a food testing and certification company (now known as FoodChain ID). Website: HatchardReport.com.

Guy is the author of ‘Your DNA Diet: Leveraging the Power of Consciousness To Heal Ourselves and Our World. An Ayurvedic Blueprint For Health and Wellness’.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of DTNZ.

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  1. Thank you for another excellent analysis. Whilst i fully agree with you that the govt response has been without any proportion you do have the luxury of hindsight.
    Would you have these numbers stratified by age or per BMI category? What bugs me to no end is the broadbrush forced medication push despite clear differences in hospitalisation risk from the outset.

      • Thanks Guy. Here’s a forecast of what will come out of the woodwork in “years”:
        The risk/benefit analysis of the Pfizer vaccine should have resulted in a positive vaccination advice in healthy individuals ONLY above a certain age. This age is higher for females than for males, but for both groups these are advanced ages. For unhealthy individuals a positive vaccination advice should have been less related to age but more to the specific comorbidity. Pfizer has known the precise numbers since February 2021, but try to hide them for 75 years.
        Do I pull this out of my bum? Not quite. Dr. Suneel Dhand here explains the tip of the iceberg that Pfizer was forced to publicise by a Texas judge: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vN_hyld-1Ls
        (not a good watch when you had a few Pfizer shots)
        Also I forecast Stuff and NZME to pretend to be very surprised and indignant when they are forced to play ball, but they are also following alternative media so they should not be.

    • Totally. Although I would add that the information was available right at the outset with data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship which was effectively a real life Petri dish that showed who was at risk and who wasn’t – and that was with the wild type virus, not omicron.

  2. “The high incidence of adverse health effects following Covid-19 vaccination, which according to Medsafe is running at 30x traditional vaccines.”
    If this data is not enough for them to pull this program, What the f..k is going on. All these people in medsafe need to be at least sacked for incompetence ,as even their own charter states that experimental medical procedures with pending approval should only be used on the affected person’s not the whole population. Still they promote these jabs with world wide data looking worse every day. More correctly these people in charge of the conovirus rollout should all be charged and tried for crimes against humanity, and public executions for those found guilty. These people have unleashed goodness knows what health issues(vaids ,ADE at least) and deny everything. Time New Zealand Political class were held to account for all there actions to do with the spending of our(taxpayer)money

    • “All these people in medsafe need to be sacked for incompetence…”

      Respectfully disagree with you PT. They need to be CRIMINALLY CHARGED.

      It’s never incompetence. Never. These people aren’t stupid, they do what they do deliberately and usually for a sweet sweet payoff.

      Incompetence is the excuse the political elite use to effectively retire from their positions with a fat pension and all benefits instead of rotting away in prison or swinging from a tree as they should be.

  3. The only essential difference I can see is that all those vaccinated, have to live with the potential adverse affect of the vaccine, for the rest of their lives.

  4. One other thing that I am wondering is whether Omicron was actually engineered as a natural vaccine and released in order to undo some of the damage done by the original engineered virus.. It seems odd to me that it is missing some essential parts of Delta and Alpha which suddenly makes it way less virulent and way more transmissible.
    One thing is for sure, there’ll be more PhD theses on this whole topic that probably anything else in history.

      • I agree, as far as I am concerned, Omicron and Delta are the vaccines. All boils down to mass genocide, mass mind control, gross injustices to humanity, evil manipulative and ego driven politicians and the greed of NWO, WHO, major Pharmaceutical Companies and the lucifarians of this corrupt world. These ugly and dangerous world leaders need to be incarcerated immediately. There is going to be an uprising of the people because we can only take so much. Enough is enough and the sheeple need to be woken up and face reality.

        • WARNING: If you have taken the vaccine, you may wish to consider stop reading now. You wont be able to unread. Theory below.

          I don’t think there will be mass immediate genocide, the old, sick, and the venerable may succumb to vaccine injury, death earlier than expected. I suspect all cause mortality rates will increase dramatically over the next 5 years. I’m confident the younger generation will suffer long term health ramifications. Many will result in shortened life expectancy. Without doubt such occurances will be blamed on long covid.

          Gene-Drive technology is something worth looking into.
          Maybe the aim is for mass depopulation, by reducing the birth rate? If this genetic modification also has the side effect of generational sterility? Maybe not this generation though second generation sterility? Then WEF job done? I find Bill Gates association with eugenics disturbing. Same Gates that has close ties with WEF, WHO, Phizer, AZ, and so many academic organisations. Genocide, I doubt, is the primary goal, that would be unkind. Rather, sterilisation of future generations.

          This theory will only scare the sheeple, because they have been genetically modified and the jab cannot be undone.

          Just reassure them, their Govt will come up with a cure. If coincidental illness occur, it is only due to long covid. They are in this together with their fellow sheeple. Care for them, for they are feeble minded.

  5. No wonder there are conspiracy theories running wild, you have to wonder” are they trying to kill 90% of the population ”
    No heath advice Vitamin D is a prime example as is ivermectin obviously false reports on the MSM
    What is coming out about the Pfizer trials should make your blood boil

  6. “The high incidence of adverse health effects following Covid-19 vaccination, which according to Medsafe is running at 30x traditional vaccines.”

    Hi Guy,

    Just doing a comparison to the flu vaccine for serious adverse events from the medsafe reporting.

    For 2013 there were 1,253,600 doses administered with 10 serious reports
    For 2014 there were 1,206,573 doses administered with 8 serious reports
    For 2015 there were 1,211,152 doses administered with 15 serious reports
    For 2016 there were 1,245,934 doses administered with 7 serious reports
    For 2017 there were 1,217,494 doses administered with 10 serious reports
    For 2018 there were 1,317,197 doses administered with 6 serious reports
    For 2019 there were 1,355,666 doses administered with 6 serious reports
    and for 2020 there were 1,774,269 doses administered with 13 serious reports

    Totals of 10,581,885 doses of flu vaccine administered over those 8 years, with a total of 75 serious adverse reaction reports.

    For comirnaty there have been 9,454,911 doses administered between 20 Feb 2021 and 31 Jan 2022 (missing 20 days for the year) with 2447 serious adverse reaction reports.

    Totals for incidence of serious ADR for flu 10,581,885 / 75 is 1 serious ADR for every 141,092 doses.
    Incidence of serious ADR for comirnaty 9,454,911 / 2447 is 1 serious ADR for every 3,864 doses.

    141,092 / 3,864 is 36.5

    Missing 20 days of doses and 36.5 times more serious ADR’s compared to the flu vaccine

  7. Who cares, as long as the troll is gone (hopefully). Looks like he/she can’t win here. Just an insignificant entity that no one gives a sh** about. Good riddance.

  8. Tēnā Koē Dr Guy Hatchard. Riveting analysis indeed.

    Is there a way to distinctly deep-dive into Vaccinated v Non Vacs & extrapolate data of 20,000 + Kiwis affected by Covid19 | Omicron ?

    Is curious to gauge the efficacy theory being drummed into Kiwis at most staged briefings be it via ZOOM or Beehive Theatrette Podium throughout the two years of Covid19 Restrictions to todate.

  9. I am just going to put his here as I don’t post anywhere else. Today my 17 year old was locking up his bike in town outside a few shops, minding his own business. He is a well presented fine young man and in the space of 5 minutes this is what happened to him.

    Some overweight man called out to him ‘where’s your mask – kid’ and a few minutes later another overweight man biked past him and said ‘you people think you own this country’.

    My son said nothing to either man. Frankly he was shocked. Now what the hell has this country become? How disgusting that these people feel OK with openly abusing someone for absolutely no reason? Maybe they need to go have a good look at themselves in the mirror. Also if they are so hyped up or scared by the media then what the heck are they doing out? It’s lucky I wasn’t there because I would have given both a piece of my mind. As if it’s not already tough enough for teens with their school all mucked up and my son can’t even sit his licence because he’s not vaccinated. Honestly the discrimination is disgusting. Shame on our govt for doing this to people and shame on people for falling for it and being too lazy to research things themselves or look after their own health.

  10. you surely must understand why AR is not an appropriate measure of assessing risk in this setting? Do you?
    If you don’t – I can’t trust anything else you have written.
    If you do – then you’re a scammer. Either way – this is not a good thing for your credibility.

    Everything else you have written, I can’t really verify its accuracy one way or the other. But, this use of AR is crazy stuff. Kind of embarrassed for you.

    • I disagree. Perhaps you could explain why you think that and then I can comment? In any statistical assessment absolute risk measures are essential. Only by measuring AR, will you be able to assess the significance of relative risk.

    • Would you care to explain what exactly you mean? Why is AR not appropriate and in what setting do you mean?

      I’ll wait……

  11. AR is surely the only appropriate measure of assessing risk in this setting.
    Simply because we are no longer in a trial analysis basis. Now, 90% of the population has been vaccinated.
    When the Govt is targeting absolute vaccination of 100% of the population.
    When the absolute risk of hospitalization of the unvaccinated at this time is in the region of 0.004%.

    So using Medsafes own vaccine safety figures, assuming serious AEFI required some form of hospitalisation. That would come to 5629 reported serious AEs following injection. There being say 4,500,000 recipients, that data suggest a serious AR from the vaccine of 0.125%.
    So relative risk or serious AE from the vaccine is 3100%, more than not having the vaccine at all and being hospitalised with covid.

  12. Was a 0.002% absolute risk reduction worth it? Like hell, it was even if that number is correct, which I do not believe it is.

    We are seeing countless organisations around the world “right sizing” their data – the very data they used to implement and enforce lockdowns and mandates – that are now proving to be wildly inaccurate due, as one organisation, the CDC said, to “coding errors”.

    We are seeing research now telling us that jabs are not just ineffective, but are making people more vulnerable to covid. Then there are the short and hitherto unknown long term effects people have been exposed to.

    The overall effect of all of these has been to convert me and thousands of other from a conspiracy theorist to a vindicated critic of Ardern and her shonky policies.


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