Friday, October 23, 2026

CEOs fear election uncertainty as Opportunity Party looms over coalition talks

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Business leaders are expressing more worry about election policy uncertainty than fuel costs, cyber attacks or the cost of living, according to the Mood of the Boardroom survey.

The NZ Herald’s annual survey of 150 executives ranked election policy uncertainty as the biggest business concern, scoring 7.62 out of 10. Fuel costs followed at 7.52, then cyber attacks at 7.22.

Respondents expressed worries about whether a change of government might bring new tax rules, employment laws or regulatory settings, forcing businesses to adjust their plans.

EMA chief executive John Fraser-Mackenzie called for “respite from the continual cycle of repeal and replace”, saying stable policies help businesses plan and invest.

Executives rated Prime Minister Christopher Luxon 2.52 out of five for his political performance and gave him just 2.27 out of five on the likelihood that he would remain National leader for a full term if re-elected. However, 65% backed Luxon as the prime minister best placed to enhance economic growth, compared with 3% for Labour’s Chris Hipkins.

The rise of the Opportunity Party was another concern for business. After polling 8% in the latest 1News Verian poll, the party may now hold the balance of power in a potentially fragmented Parliament.

While 41% of respondents considered TOP a credible coalition partner, 40% disagreed. Some 62% said business confidence would suffer if the party held the balance of power. Luxon has ruled out working with Opportunity.

Meanwhile, critics are questioning Opportunity’s political identity, whether it has softened its bottom lines, and whether its rise reflects voter support or a manufactured image amplified by extensive legacy-media coverage. There is also scepticism about whether that polling momentum will translate into clearing the 5% threshold.

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