Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is likely to retain a centre-right majority after the special votes are processed, although the result remains vulnerable to changes in a handful of key seats, according to analysis by political commentator and RCR host Rodney Hide.
Hide’s analysis of 40,000 possible election outcomes suggests the National-ACT-NZ First bloc has a 70% chance of retaining its parliamentary majority.
On election night, National won 42 seats, ACT 13 and NZ First 12, giving the centre-right 67 seats in a 131-member Parliament. A majority required 66, leaving the coalition with just one seat to spare.
However, 399,365 special votes remain to be processed, with the official results due on 27 November.
Special votes have traditionally favoured the left, but Hide’s analysis suggested the effect could be smaller this year after changes ended same-day enrolment and brought forward the deadline.
The modelling accounted for the historical voting patterns of special voters and ran 40,000 simulations. It found the centre-right’s chances of retaining its majority ranged from 62% if special votes leaned as strongly left as in 2023, to 78% if the effect was half as strong.
In a quarter of the simulations, neither bloc secured a majority, potentially leaving the Opportunity Party in a position to determine whether a centre-right government could be formed. Only 3.7% of outcomes produced a combined majority for Labour, the Greens, the Maori Party and Opportunity. The left bloc failed to secure a majority in any simulation without Opportunity.
Wairarapa emerged as a key electorate to watch. National held a lead of just 139 votes, with about 6,500 special votes expected. The modelling gave Labour a 51% chance of winning the seat.
If National held Wairarapa, the centre-right retained its majority in 94% of simulations. If Labour won the seat, that figure fell to 47%.
NZ First’s final list seat was another crucial factor, with the party given a 40% chance of retaining it. If it did, the centre-right’s majority was almost certain.
The analysis concluded that while special votes could still cost the centre-right its majority, the odds remained firmly in the bloc’s favour.
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