“Two Ticks Blue” could cost the right: Analysis warns of a National overhang trap in the 2026 Election

Centre-right voters could unintentionally waste their votes on 7 November, according to a number of political commentators.

The warning rests on a rare MMP quirk that the 2026 polls have exposed: a possible large overhang for a major party. Across all six major pollsters, National has polled between 27 and 32 percent in every poll since May. The current polling average of 21 polls puts National on about 29 percent, which entitles it to roughly 35 seats. National won 44 electorates in 2023, and commentators expect it to win somewhere between 38 and 40 or more this year. Under MMP, a party keeps every electorate it wins. Parliament grows to absorb the extra MPs rather than taking them away.

The most recent 1News Verian poll recorded 13% of respondents as undecided or declining to say, so there is still room for movement before election day. However, the picture has been consistent across pollsters for months, with National’s party vote sitting well below the level needed to match its likely electorate wins.

“If National wins more electorates than its party vote entitles it to, every extra party vote for National adds nothing to the right bloc’s seat count,” said Penny Marie. “For voters who want a National–ACT–NZ First government, ‘two ticks blue’ may be the least efficient way to vote in this election.”

Three ways right-bloc votes could be wasted

The analysis identifies what it calls a “triple threat”:

1. The party vote trap. If National is in overhang, it brings in no list MPs. Party votes for National then don’t increase the right bloc’s total. A party vote for ACT or NZ First would.
2. The Epsom paradox. In Epsom, and possibly Tāmaki, the usual cup-of-tea arrangement may now work against the right. ACT is polling well above the 5% threshold, so an ACT electorate win adds no seat to the bloc. A National electorate win in an overhang scenario adds one more seat.
3. The vote-split hazard. In marginal seats, candidate votes split between right-bloc candidates can hand Labour the win. In 2023, Labour held Nelson by 29 votes while ACT and NZ First candidates together took more than 4,300 votes. Once National is in overhang, every electorate it loses is a seat the right loses outright rather than getting back from the list.

The analysis concludes that the most efficient split for right-bloc voters, if current polling holds, is the candidate vote for the National candidate and the party vote for ACT or NZ First.

Staying home or backing a long shot carries a cost

Penny Marie also warns conservative voters who feel disillusioned with the major parties that sitting out the election, or giving their party vote to a party unlikely to reach 5%, can shape the result in ways they don’t intend. A party vote for a party that falls below the 5% threshold, and doesn’t win an electorate, elects no one. Those votes are set aside, and seats are shared among the parties that did get in. In effect, this raises the seat share of every successful party, including those a voter may most want to keep out of government.

“I understand why many conservative voters feel disillusioned, and a protest vote can feel like the honest choice,” said Penny Marie. “But in a close election, a vote that doesn’t count towards a seat, or a vote that isn’t cast at all, can decide which bloc governs. People should vote with their eyes open about what’s at stake.”

The TOP factor

The Opportunities Party is hovering just above the threshold, averaging around 6% in polls. National ruled out working with TOP in July, so if TOP enters Parliament its seats are likely to help only the left. On current polling averages, the right bloc falls a few seats short of a majority if TOP gets in. An overhang also lifts the majority target: a 130-seat Parliament, for example, would require 66 seats rather than 61.

“On these numbers, a significant National overhang may be the right bloc’s clearest path to a majority,” said Penny Marie. “That only happens if right-leaning voters understand how their two votes actually work.”

Why is National still campaigning for two ticks?

At National’s campaign launch this week, former Prime Minister Sir John Key argued against commentators promoting tactical voting. NZ First leader Winston Peters later criticised that speech publicly. ACT leader David Seymour this week emailed their supporters saying, “Because of how MMP works, extra party votes for National are unlikely to add a single extra MP to the centre-right bloc.”

“National’s position deserves scrutiny,” said Penny Marie. “A large overhang would strengthen its coalition partners at the negotiating table, and it could push senior list-ranked MPs out of Parliament. Voters are entitled to understand how their votes translate into seats before they cast them.”

Read Penny Marie’s full analysis here.