Centre-right voters could unintentionally waste their votes on 7 November, according to a number of political commentators.
The warning rests on a rare MMP quirk that the 2026 polls have exposed: a possible large overhang for a major party. Across all six major pollsters, National has polled between 27 and 32 percent in every poll since May. The current polling average of 21 polls puts National on about 29 percent, which entitles it to roughly 35 seats. National won 44 electorates in 2023, and commentators expect it to win somewhere between 38 and 40 or more this year. Under MMP, a party keeps every electorate it wins. Parliament grows to absorb the extra MPs rather than taking them away.
The most recent 1News Verian poll recorded 13% of respondents as undecided or declining to say, so there is still room for movement before election day. However, the picture has been consistent across pollsters for months, with National’s party vote sitting well below the level needed to match its likely electorate wins.
“If National wins more electorates than its party vote entitles it to, every extra party vote for National adds nothing to the right bloc’s seat count,” said Penny Marie. “For voters who want a National–ACT–NZ First government, ‘two ticks blue’ may be the least efficient way to vote in this election.”
Three ways right-bloc votes could be wasted
The analysis identifies what it calls a “triple threat”:
- The party vote trap. If National is in overhang, it brings in no list MPs. Party votes for National then don’t increase the right bloc’s total. A party vote for ACT or NZ First would.
- The Epsom paradox. In Epsom, and possibly Tāmaki, the usual cup-of-tea arrangement may now work against the right. ACT is polling well above the 5% threshold, so an ACT electorate win adds no seat to the bloc. A National electorate win in an overhang scenario adds one more seat.
- The vote-split hazard. In marginal seats, candidate votes split between right-bloc candidates can hand Labour the win. In 2023, Labour held Nelson by 29 votes while ACT and NZ First candidates together took more than 4,300 votes. Once National is in overhang, every electorate it loses is a seat the right loses outright rather than getting back from the list.
The analysis concludes that the most efficient split for right-bloc voters, if current polling holds, is the candidate vote for the National candidate and the party vote for ACT or NZ First.
Staying home or backing a long shot carries a cost
Penny Marie also warns conservative voters who feel disillusioned with the major parties that sitting out the election, or giving their party vote to a party unlikely to reach 5%, can shape the result in ways they don’t intend. A party vote for a party that falls below the 5% threshold, and doesn’t win an electorate, elects no one. Those votes are set aside, and seats are shared among the parties that did get in. In effect, this raises the seat share of every successful party, including those a voter may most want to keep out of government.
“I understand why many conservative voters feel disillusioned, and a protest vote can feel like the honest choice,” said Penny Marie. “But in a close election, a vote that doesn’t count towards a seat, or a vote that isn’t cast at all, can decide which bloc governs. People should vote with their eyes open about what’s at stake.”
The TOP factor
The Opportunities Party is hovering just above the threshold, averaging around 6% in polls. National ruled out working with TOP in July, so if TOP enters Parliament its seats are likely to help only the left. On current polling averages, the right bloc falls a few seats short of a majority if TOP gets in. An overhang also lifts the majority target: a 130-seat Parliament, for example, would require 66 seats rather than 61.
“On these numbers, a significant National overhang may be the right bloc’s clearest path to a majority,” said Penny Marie. “That only happens if right-leaning voters understand how their two votes actually work.”
Why is National still campaigning for two ticks?
At National’s campaign launch this week, former Prime Minister Sir John Key argued against commentators promoting tactical voting. NZ First leader Winston Peters later criticised that speech publicly. ACT leader David Seymour this week emailed their supporters saying, “Because of how MMP works, extra party votes for National are unlikely to add a single extra MP to the centre-right bloc.”
“National’s position deserves scrutiny,” said Penny Marie. “A large overhang would strengthen its coalition partners at the negotiating table, and it could push senior list-ranked MPs out of Parliament. Voters are entitled to understand how their votes translate into seats before they cast them.”
Read Penny Marie’s full analysis here.
The NZ governement propogandists (euphemistically labelled communications staff) are out in force undermining our electoral system.
You MUST simply vote for the party which matches your ideals.
There is a chance the party won’t get in.
BUT voting for one of the members of NZ’s main stream party syndicate (nat, lab, act, nzf, greens, and maoris), with their mysteriously super wealthy ministers and prime ministers is not only a wasted vote, it guarantees more of your wealth will be transfeŕred to Aussie waterfront homes!
I will be voting for the only NZ party whose promises and actions demonstrate the integrity of their leaders…. the Freedom Party!
Disclaimer. I am not and have never been affiliated with Freedom. Im just a desperate voter looking for a glimmer of hope
I hear you.
However, any small party that fails to make strenuous and publicized efforts to co-align with other ‘non-syndicate’ parties, will not get my vote.
We need a Grand Coalition of anti-deep-state parties, because we DO have a deep-state in NZ.
Failing above, the only party that is radical enough to bring real change is -IMO- NZLoyal.
Well said 👍
Wont be voting Freedom but your sentiment is spot on in my opinion.
While I might agree on the policies, I know the freedom party is not polling and my vote will not be counted,
Most vote to get a government out or prevent one from getting in. Again a vote for the freedom party will not achieve that.
Hipkins and his actions during the covid fraud resulting in deaths, overspending and the poor position we are in today isn’t getting my votes. Also where is the missing 30 billion dollars?
Luxon and his arrogant decision not to remove fluoride from a towns drinking water even when they voted to do so. GE released on out farms. Luxon and his party are not getting my votes. My message to Luxon is, if you want to be arrogant without reason, we the voters will punish you in the polls.
The greens. One of the largest bunch of arrogant individuals ever. They drive cars, fly in planes, drive on tar roads, drink beer. All made from oil yet they destroyed the oil refinery and we still use imported oil. Anyone who votes for those guys has a mental disorder.
Act and NZ First have the best performing and practical politicians.
Is that the same nz first who put the despicable stupid ardern in power, supported the covid fraud, gave away our fisheries, and spent a billion dollar regional development fund with no return to the taxpayer, someone hot that money!
And the ACT party who support the food, banking, electricity, insurance, and petrol cartels making kiwi lives a cost living misery..
And never forget the other mysteriously rich, thick act minister who ran the covid inquiry. Thanks Brooke.
I hope national, labour, act, nz first, greens, maori. top and nz loyal syndicate party voters have a nz exit plan… you’ll need it.
Well who are YOU voting for then Sherlock?
I’m voting for the only nz party whose actions demonstrate integrity!
A party which pledges to investigate and expose the: Luxon, Watts, Willis, Seymour, Van Velden, Peyers, Jones, Hipkins, Swarbrick, etc. corrupt tax embezzlement schemes.
A party which demonstrates commitment to uncovering the covid fraud by recruiting the man who put his own liberty at risk exposing the fraud to Kiwis.
I encourage all others to do the same…. if you value FREEDOM!
Why would you lump NZ Loyal in with that lot? If anyone stood up to all this and paid the price, its their people.
Because NZ Loyal have no: substantial, researched, costed, workable, detailed policy.
NZ Loyal are throwing out sound bites in the hope you believe them without digging deeper.
Did you know NZ Loyal are pledging to nationalize large parts of the economy whilst “moving away from the debt-based fiat currency system”?
The only option NZ Loyal has left to get funds for renationalisation is to print money. A similar strategy worked out well for Zimbabwe.
“Zimbabwe’s peak month of inflation is estimated at 790.6 billion percent month-on-month,”
Did you know NZ Loyal are pleging to create a public house building operation?
Public servants building houses will work as well as public servants running $40m immigration it projects! Who pocketed our $40m Erica?
B2bnews
“Immigration New Zealand ran a biometric technology upgrade for seven years, spent somewhere between $35 million and $40 million of public money, delivered nothing, and then kept the minister in the dark about how badly it had gone wrong.”
National are desperate, but they are yet to show that they really are blue and not just shades of red in blue clothing in many of their policies. A decade ago the differences were clear. Now there are so many blurred lines it can be hard to tell the difference. So be informed and vote for the party that aligns with your own Kiwi values. Dont be bribed by hollow promises of getting more money! It will never happen! Look for the values that will better enrich you and your whanau. Education. Health. Real economic growth in important industries to sustain the nation and not just hand-outs. Etc. Don’t look to follow the bias of MSM. They no longer have true investigative journalists nor do they report truthfully much of the time but parrot global agendas that may not be factually verifiable, just like “global warming” doom and gloom touting that “in ten years some islands will no longer exist!” And that was decades ago predictions and the islands are still there and people still live on them! Such things have caused untold mental stress and damage in many younger people who are taught that this is fact and, indeed, led many to feel helpless and even hopeless.
Do your own homework, dig deep, and get to know the real reasons you are choosing your local MP and your political party that align with values you can be proud of.
Party vote for Painy Marie!
Wow how old are you?
After hearing her speak at staunch fundamentalist christian churches, I’m now surprised at this news item by Penny Marie. What a surprising lack of faith. Where is the evidence of any christianity? Rightwing globalism is just as bad as leftwing globalism. Sick and tired of christians exploiting voters at election time.
I’ve made up my mind some time ago to vote for the Freedom Party. I’m not affiliated to them either. But I did meet their leaders at the Freedom Village at parliament 4 years ago
0.5% why not NZ Loyal 1.5%?
Another wasted vote then……
John Key can keep his opinions to himself.
He started all this mess re globalists back when he was in.
No mate that goes way back to Labour in the mid 1980’s.
It actually goes back to the 60’s with the 12 year Holyoake led National government administration.
Wasn’t that when the IMF came and took all our gold?
Wasn’t around then but would not surprise me. Kirk might have fixed NZ but he never had a chance.
Where do all our problems stem from?
MMP and victimhood voices in the wilderness and maligned racial quotas
Which is why everybody was brainwashed into accepting it which allows democracy which is demonarchy mob rule to be fine tuned further to create instability and confusion
We don’t need MMP and never did
In fact we don’t even need political parties
Anybody who is worth a pinch of goat sh*t can run as an independent and doesn’t need trainer wheels to grease them through the hoop
Think about it
A good description of how the fake democracy fakes democracy.
Every three years you get to put your “tick” on the ballot paper. And then the fake democracy party politicians do what they want anyway.
Three years later you get to put your “tick” on the ballot paper for the same set of fake democracy parties, plus maybe one or two new fringe parties and the fake democracy rolls on.
Direct Democracy would be a far better system and genuinely reflect the will of the voters all of the time and eliminate all of the corruption and cronyism which is inherent in the fake democracy party political system.
Agreed but we haven’t got time to install that right now so for this election we work with what we have got.
“I understand why many conservative voters feel disillusioned, and a protest vote can feel like the honest choice,” said Penny Marie. “But in a close election, a vote that doesn’t count towards a seat, or a vote that isn’t cast at all, can decide which bloc governs. People should vote with their eyes open about what’s at stake.”
Whats at stake as far as I’m concerned Penny is New Zealand’s long term ability to survive as a democracy as opposed to an autocratic post nationalistic police state where personal freedom and wealth is stripped away. I WONT be voting for National, ACT or NZF, having voted for them in the past. I’m going with a newcomer because the real RISK at this point to my mind is more of the same. It might take more than one election for change to happen but if people see newcomers attracting votes then they may well join in. At least that’s my hope because what we have now offers no hope at all.
Exactly
Globalistssuck – Opportunity? OMG there’s no helping some people is there’s/ you’re a lefty, probably a retired teacher or public servant. 🙄
That speaks volumes of Globalistsucks. A past or current school teacher. No surprises there.
Two ticks Nat or Lab is a wasted vote.
In 2023;
Nats 42% of the counting party vote, won them approx 42% of parliaments 121 seats.
National winning 48 seats, take off 43 electorate seats they won, granting them 5 list seats.
1,085,000 party voted National and they got allocated 5 list seats.
1,500,000 party voted Lab/Grn/Act/NZF and they won 46 list seats.
Nats 42% of total counting party vote and won 9% of the list seats.
The opposition 58% of total counting party vote won 91% of the list seats.
Every 225,000 party votes for National won a list seat.
Every 45,000 party votes for Lab won a list seat.
Every 27,000 party votes for Green won a list seat.
Every 27,000 party votes for ACT won a list seat.
Every 22,000 party votes for NZF won a list seat.
National voters pay 5x -10x more for their list MPs. They are far better off giving their party vote to their preferred coilition partner.
Let’s get this right New Zealand. We can’t afford to let leftwing lunatics destroy New Zealand by pushing their LGBT nonsense on our kids, by crushing our economy with climate scaremongering and even higher taxes, and by being soft on crime. These left-wing dreamers think communism and socialism is the answer when it has NEVER worked. Communism always leads to poverty and death! Give me ONE example of communism working. These idiots promise a utopia and deliver a dystopia. These people think money grows on trees, and they think it’s a good idea to cosy up with criminal gangs.
Vote smart people, we can’t afford to muck this election up.