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Disgraced pollster scrambles to explain Iowa poll debacle after misleading forecast on huge Harris lead

J. Ann Selzer news
J. Ann Selzer (L), Kamala Harris (R).

In the aftermath of a surprising pre-election poll that set off a media frenzy, pollster J. Ann Selzer is “reviewing her data” to understand why her Iowa poll showed Vice President Kamala Harris in the lead—a prediction sharply contradicted by former President Donald Trump’s decisive win.

The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, released just days before the election, sparked widespread attention with its unexpected 47% to 44% lead for Harris.

The results suggested a dramatic 7-point shift since September when Trump had held a 4-point edge. Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., had confidently stated that Harris had “leaped into a leading position” before Election Day.

The poll was widely embraced by the media, with pundits on MSNBC, CNN, and ABC’s The View hailing Selzer’s results.

“If this is accurate, and if anybody is accurate, it’s likely to be Ann Selzer in the Iowa poll,” discredited ‘Russian hoax’ journalist Rachel Maddow remarked. On The View panelists praised Selzer’s track record as “always right.”

But when Trump won Iowa handily, media enthusiasm turned to scrutiny.

Trump supporters highlighted Selzer’s misstep, with co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita sarcastically congratulating her on “retirement” while sharing an article once calling her “the best pollster in politics.”

Facing mounting criticism, Selzer responded late Tuesday, acknowledging that her poll “did not match what the Iowa electorate ultimately decided in the voting booth.” She pledged to analyse data from multiple sources in an attempt to understand the gap between her forecast and the election outcome.

Shawn Carney, founder of 40 Days for Life, criticised the poll’s impact, suggesting to Fox News the media’s embrace of Selzer’s findings reflected a bias toward particular narratives. “It just shows how out of touch they are with what actually matters to Americans,” Carney stated, pointing to issues like economic stability and family as higher voter priorities than the assumed focus on abortion rights.

Talking of the poll during a campaign rally, Donald Trump said, “I got a poll I’m ten points up in Iowa. One of my enemies puts out a poll I’m three down. Why do they announce a poll that’s highly skewed towards Democrats and liberals? When you read that they interview far more Democrats than they do Republicans. Why do they do that?”

With Iowa voters ultimately siding with Trump, Selzer’s error has raised questions about the reliability of polling and the influence of media on public perception in high-stakes races, with some calling for polls to be banned due to election interference.

 

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