A developing El Niño weather pattern could contribute to hundreds of thousands of additional heat-related deaths worldwide, according to research from the Climate Impact Lab.
The group estimates that extreme heat associated with the 2026–27 event could result in about 451,000 additional deaths, with the largest impacts projected in developing countries.
Researchers forecast 66,800 additional heat deaths across Africa’s Sahel region over the next six months, including 31,400 in Nigeria and 17,500 in Sudan, while Indonesia could record 19,300, India 15,800 and Brazil 13,300. The study estimates around 3,500 additional deaths in the United States between September and February.
Climate Impact Lab co-founder Michael Greenstone said the figures represented “parents and children, grandparents and neighbors.”
El Niño is a naturally occurring warming of the tropical Pacific that can alter weather patterns worldwide, producing increased heat and drought in some areas and heavier rainfall and flooding in others. Researchers said the current event could become the strongest on record and argued that the conditions may provide an indication of temperatures that could become more common as global temperatures rise.
