About 90% of Russia’s grain export capacity in the Azov-Black Sea has been taken offline following Ukrainian drone strikes and navigation restrictions.
All three grain terminals at Novorossiysk, a major black sea port city in Russia, suspended operations at the end of last week, removing facilities that handled 25 million tonnes of grain exports. Navigation in the Sea of Azov has been suspended since July, while another terminal at Taman halted production in late July. Tuapse, Russia’s smallest deep-water grain terminal, is reportedly the only port in the region still operating.
Ukraine claimed 35 attacks on vessels in port, 22 at sea and 67 against port facilities in July, compared with 14 such incidents throughout 2025. The disruption has forced shippers to delay or cancel dozens of cargoes.
Asian processors had booked between two million and 2.5 million tonnes of Black Sea wheat for delivery from July to September, representing up to half of regional import demand. Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, sourced more than 82% of its first-half imports from Russia and Ukraine, while Indonesia bought about 600,000 tonnes.
The disruption puts one of the world’s most important grain export routes under serious pressure. With countries across Africa, the Middle East and Asia heavily reliant on Black Sea wheat, a prolonged shutdown risks tightening global supplies, driving up prices and adding further pressure to food costs around the world.
Buyers are considering replacement supplies from Australia, North America and Argentina.
The shutdown has also left farmers in Russia facing larger inventories and falling domestic prices despite a harvest of nearly 140 million tonnes. Russian Grain Union president Arkady Zlochevsky warned that heavy losses, expensive credit and unavailable advance financing could undermine the next winter sowing campaign.
Read more at ZeroHedge, The Moscow Times and Deutsche Welle, or watch Unshadowed (Ice Age Farmer) on YouTube.
Image credit: Getty Images
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