Former National Cabinet Minister Maurice Williamson is urging National supporters to rethink their party vote on 7 November, warning that for the first time under MMP, a National party vote may add nothing to the centre-right’s seat count.
Speaking on the People in Politics podcast with independent reporter Penny Marie, Mr Williamson, a National MP for 30 years from 1987, holder of 18 ministerial portfolios and later New Zealand’s Consul General in the United States, said 2026 puts National voters in a position no one has been in before.
“There has never been an MMP election before where any of the major parties’ number of electorates they’re going to win is higher than what their party vote entitles them to,” he said.
The numbers
Mr Williamson, who holds a master’s degree in physics and mathematics, says the arithmetic is simple. Under MMP, the party vote sets a party’s total seats, and electorate wins are subtracted from that total.
Under MMP, the party vote sets a party’s total seats, and electorate wins are subtracted from that total. National is polling about 28 to 30 percent, which is roughly 36 seats. It currently holds 44 electorates, and Mr Williamson expects it to win at least 38, “possibly 40 and on a good day maybe more.”
That leaves National “underwater”: its extra electorates become overhang seats it keeps regardless, so additional National party votes don’t add seats. “Your party vote for the National Party doesn’t add to anything,” he said. Even in 2002, National’s worst result at 20.9 percent, its party vote still brought in six list MPs. 2026 is the first exception.
Testing this on the free simulator at makeyourvotecount.nz, with National’s lost votes split evenly between ACT and NZ First so the centre-right total stays the same:
- National at 30.2% produces a centre-left government
- National at 28.2% produces a hung Parliament
- National at 26.2% produces a centre-right government with a four-seat majority
The rugby analogy
“If you were watching the All Blacks playing South Africa, you don’t care if the props in the front row of the scrum score the tries or the wingers out on the side with their speedsters score the tries… What you care about is that your total points are more than South Africa’s.”
“Isn’t this disloyal?”
Mr Williamson says splitting would have been wrong at every previous MMP election because the party vote mattered then. This time, “party voting for the National Party makes no turn of the dial.” He notes that ACT and NZ First voters split around 70 percent of their votes in 2023, compared with 18.2 percent of National voters, and that Jim Bolger and Helen Clark both asked supporters to split their votes in the 1990s.
He is clear that National voters should keep their electorate vote for their local National candidate, particularly in the six to eight close seats, naming Wigram as one to watch.
“I prefer the narrative to be make both your votes count.”
Try it, share it, watch it
- Try the interactive tool makeyourvotecount.nz
- Share it with your friends
- Watch the podcast with Maurice Williamson on YouTube
Voting opens 26 October. Enrolment closes at midnight on Sunday 25 October. Election day is Saturday 7 November. Enrol to vote.
