New Zealand’s fuel vulnerability highlighted as global energy risks collide

New Zealand may be heading towards a severe energy squeeze, with several risks converging at once. Former petrochemical commissioning engineer Lester Bryant told RCR the country is facing a looming gas shortfall as international fuel markets become increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

He said New Zealand’s exposure is heightened by its reliance on imported transport fuels, declining domestic gas production and limited onshore fuel reserves. Bryant said the biggest challenge was the widening gap between the speed at which an energy crisis could develop and the time needed to build new infrastructure.

“We are running out of gas rapidly,” he warned, saying the decline of the Maui gas field could leave the country facing “a chasm of energy” over the next three to seven years, particularly across the North Island.

Bryant dismissed nuclear and LNG imports as too slow or prohibitively expensive, arguing New Zealand should instead capitalise on its 93% renewable hydro base by expanding dam capacity and partnering with China to build an ultra-high-voltage DC transmission spine to replace the ageing Cook Strait cable. He said electrifying the North Island before a global oil shock collides with a gas shortage was critical to avoiding a wider energy crisis.

Energy security has become an increasingly prominent political issue, with NZ First leader Winston Peters arguing the country should strengthen its domestic resilience and better understand what petroleum resources remain available. He has proposed a $1.2 billion fund to survey offshore resources and reopen Marsden Point and wants to establish a Norway-style sovereign wealth fund.

Speaking to Paul Brennan, Peters described the refinery closure as “the most stupid thing to do”, arguing New Zealand needs greater resilience against future international supply shocks.

The warnings comes as diplomatic efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East continue to produce mixed signals. Iran said this week it is not seeking negotiations with Washington, despite US President Donald Trump claiming the two sides were engaged in “good talks”. Trump has met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington overnight, with confirmation that “productive” talks were had on Iran. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also met with Trump today, he told the media they discussed Patriot interceptor missiles. Both meetings were held in private.

Reuters reported this week that Europe is heading into winter with gas storage at its lowest level for this time of year since 2021, while disruptions in the Middle East and stronger Asian demand are tightening global LNG supplies. The report said countries are increasingly competing for limited fuel supplies, leaving less room to absorb further shocks.

Geopolitical commentator Patrick Henningsen said the widening conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East showed signs of becoming increasingly interconnected. Referring to Ukraine’s reported strike on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea, he argued the risk of wider escalation was growing.

Some analysts also argue financial market activity is obscuring underlying supply pressures. Chris Martenson and Philip Pilkington contend that algorithmic trading and speculative positioning have contributed to weaker oil prices despite tightening physical inventories. Martenson said managed money is now the most pessimistic on oil it has ever been.

“They hold about $19 billion of shorts on the Brent contract alone when the normal number would be bouncing between two and five,” he said. Pilkington says tactical short dumps hit the market on Friday evenings to reset weekly prices lower. “You short the hell out of the oil market, especially on Friday, to reset positions for the next week,” he said.

Attention has also turned to the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and wider shifts in global energy markets. The Reserve is reportedly falling by around 7.6 million barrels a week and could reach its congressionally mandated floor within weeks if Chinese demand rises. Economist Simon Dixon argues this may be part of a broader transition away from the petrodollar and US dominance towards a multipolar system centred on the Gulf, China and BRICS. Whether that shift is managed or simply unfolding under pressure remains contested.

Read more at Reuters, Epoch Times, CNN, NPR and Al Jazeera  and BBC. Watch or listen to RCR’s interviews with NZ First leader Winston Peters and former petrochemical commissioning engineer Lester Bryant. For further analysis, see Patrick Hennigsen on X, and on YouTube see Chris Martenson with Simon Dixon and Philip Pilkington on Mario Nawfal.