The country could lose tens of millions of residents within a century due to falling birth rates, new projections warn.
South Korea’s population could decrease 85% over the next century if current demographic trends persist, according to a new study. The research highlights the nation’s ongoing struggle with low birth rates and an aging population.
The report, released on Wednesday by the Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future, showed that even under the most optimistic scenario, the population is projected to fall to 15.73 million, which is less than one-third of its present size. The median estimate puts the population in 2125 at 11.15 million.
In the worst-case scenario outlined by the institute, South Korea’s population could decline to 7.53 million by 2125, a steep drop from its current 51.68 million. That number would be lower than the capital Seoul’s current population of more than 9.3 million.
The institute used the internationally recognized cohort-component method to project future population changes based on fertility, mortality and migration trends. The report highlights the unusually fast rate of South Korea’s demographic decline.
The decline is being driven not only by low birth rates but also by a compounding effect: as each generation becomes smaller, the number of potential parents also drops, speeding up the overall population decrease.
In 75 years, the worst-case projection shows that for every 100 people of working age (between 15 and 64) there could be 140 seniors aged 65 or older.
At present, 100 working-age people support about 30 seniors, signaling that South Korea is heading toward an “inverted pyramid” society, where the number of elderly dependents greatly exceeds those in the workforce.
The findings also showed that younger generations now place more importance on “money” and “housing” than “love” when talking about marriage. Financial pressure was the most common concern raised in discussions about having children.
The report concluded that economic factors currently play a bigger role than personal choice in decisions about marriage and parenthood.
The projections highlight the demographic pressure South Korea faces as it deals with one of the world’s lowest birth rates and fastest-aging populations.
As of 2024, the country’s total fertility rate has risen just 0.75, and remains far below the replacement level of 2.1.
South Korea has multiple problems. Much of which is the result of Western globalist meddling after WWII. Firstly a small number of large family companies have a disproportionate control of the nations commerce and GDP (this was encouraged by the Western powers who took control of the South). This makes it incredibly competitive to get a decent, well paid job, unless you are willing to leave (which I’m guessing many have). Equally, its horrendously hard to get into one of the three most prestigious universities, which might get you a job with these firms. Then there’s the stress and suicide this engenders. Study school and endless swot are more or less a survival strategy but can also lead kids to end it all. Small wonder no one wants to have kids and put them through this. Average workers, who don’t make it often face horrendous working conditions, with poor paying jobs and long hours. They can face depression and there’s a growing trend, to suicide. To top all this off, healthcare which is some of the best in the world is privatized (wonder where they go that idea?). For many people this can put urgent care, out of their reach or send them bankrupt, paying the bills.
All of which could be fixed but like NZ the place has fallen into the hands of political globalists, who gain no personal advantage, from change. Which leads in turn to panicked soft immigration policies, assuming anyone actually wants to go there and people who may or may not assimilate and be committed to the society’s growth. This is why places like the UK are so protective of often baldy behaved, new arrivals.
The most obvious elephant in the room remains:
‘As of August 28, 2023, South Koreans in their twenties had the highest coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination rate in South Korea for the initial two shots, at 99.8 percent and 98.9 percent’
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1358025/south-korea-national-covid-19-vaccination-rate-by-age/
Don’t believe such kind of forecast. The trend will change. When the population of South Korea drops to 25 million in the future, the resources per capita will rebound .The pressure of raising a child will drop , so the fertility rate will rise.