A bettor made more than USD $436,000 on a prediction market wager that Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro would be out of power just before the US announced his capture, prompting questions about possible use of inside information.
Data from crypto-based platform Polymarket shows the odds of Maduro’s removal rose sharply in the hours before President Donald Trump publicly confirmed the operation, despite having been low earlier in the day.
The winning account, created only last month and focused solely on Venezuela-related bets, placed about $32,500 across several positions.
While the identity of the bettor remains unknown, analysts and lawmakers have raised concerns that the timing suggests access to non-public information.
The incident has renewed scrutiny of prediction markets, which face looser rules than traditional financial markets, and has already led to proposed legislation aimed at restricting government insiders from trading on such platforms.
