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Guy Hatchard
Guy Hatchardhttps://hatchardreport.com/
Guy Hatchard PhD is a statistician and former senior manager at Genetic ID, a global food safety testing and certification laboratory. Guy's book 'Your DNA Diet' is available on Amazon.com.

Modelling Studies Can Plumb the Depths of Both Idiocy and Deception

We are fools for listening uncritically and can only blame ourselves.

Business magazine Forbes has published a story with the arresting headline:

“Unvaccinated People Increase Risk Of Covid Infection Among Vaccinated, Study Finds”.

The work they are referring to is not in the normal sense a study but is actually a modelling exercise published by the journal of the Canadian Medical Association. Did the Forbes staff writer read the paper very well? I am quite sure they didn’t. At the end of paragraph one of the Method section of the original paper, it describes their model saying:

“A vaccine that is 80% efficacious would result in 80% of vaccinated people becoming immune, with the remaining 20% being susceptible to infection. We did not model waning immunity.”

Now I am sure you know that the mRNA vaccines do not stop infection and also wane in effectiveness. In other words mRNA vaccination does not confer immunity and its effectiveness does not remain constant as the paper assumes. So what use is this paper and to what do its conclusions apply? Apparently not to the mRNA Covid vaccines.

Conflicts of interest are at work

Lo and behold, one of the paper authors, David Fisman, declares competing interests:

“He has served on advisory boards related to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines for Seqirus, Pfizer, AstraZeneca and Sanofi-Pasteur Vaccines.…”

Another author, Ashleigh Tuite, was employed by the Public Health Agency of Canada when the research was conducted (aka the domain of Justin Trudeau).

So why would Forbes publicise this story which prima facie has little relevance to the real world data of the current pandemic? Forbes magazine is 51% owned by a Hong Kong based company Integrated Whale Investments about which little is known. The Washington Post has suggested that Forbes editorial policy has been influenced as a result, but by whom no one really knows.

At this point in the pandemic, it has become clear that boosted individuals are becoming more vulnerable to Omicron than the unvaccinated. So I can only suggest that it might be advantageous for some scientists and politicians to blame the unvaccinated for everything in order to cover up their own mistaken ideas. Or perhaps there are commercial interests anxious to sell more arguably useless vaccines for billions of dollars. You decide.

The unwitting public are the victims here

If the government and their compliant media friends are our one source of truth, as has happened in New Zealand (by decree), then you have no option except to blame the unvaccinated whatever happens. For our government, it is quite useful to be able to quote a study (???) that affirms just that, even if it is irrelevant and unrelated to the real world we are living in.

The actual NZ situation is quite different, the unvaccinated are currently less likely to be hospitalised than the boosted. Thank you to Grant Dixon for compiling and graphing NZ Ministry of Health data, below.

COVID modelling news

Carefully masked from reality

This morning my mask exempt friend entered a haberdashery shop, whereupon two other potential customers turned and fled. Yesterday she was turned away from a fabric store. I am sure many of you have had similar experiences. The fact of the matter is that almost the whole of the New Zealand population has become subject to fear-based government-sponsored group-think.

Are we all being conditioned to vote for Jacinda Ardern in next year’s election based on the carefully constructed myth that she is keeping us all safe? We should be keeping our feet on the ground. We should recognise that public relations experts and propaganda promoters are at work full time, but they are working out of touch with reality.

Is it the economy?

Meanwhile our whole economy is becoming more and more dysfunctional. As people are too afraid to associate with one another in public, the whole basis of commercial activity is being undermined.

The two large supermarket chains are laughing all the way to the bank. As small businesses are forced to close and their monopoly grows, supermarket prices and profits are entering the stratosphere. Smart individuals are now ordering their vegetables and groceries direct from Australia (as far away from us as Moscow is from London) because they are so much cheaper.

This week in the UK the government was forced to intervene to control prices as the cost of tomatoes (mostly imported) rose from NZ$1.10 to $1.80 per kilo. The public were outraged and made their disapproval known in no uncertain terms, forcing the government to act. Here in New Zealand (where tomatoes are easily grown), Countdown is charging at this minute, as I write, on its website from $6 to $16 per kilo for tomatoes.

The government is clueless to control this rampant price gouging, as it is clueless about most things including the pandemic. The public is equally hoodwinked, we are queueing up fully masked and fully vaccinated to pay through the nose for everyday items without so much as a squeak of dissent.

The ten year old son of a friend asked his mother the other day “Which do you think our society is more like—Brave New World or 1984?” I doubt either Aldous Huxley or George Orwell could ever have imagined anything so incomprehensibly doublethink as 2022 New Zealand.

This is the state we have reached through our government’s careful rationing of information and saturation conditioning.

Time we reopened the flood gates of free speech and social media—hold your horses, we might endanger our one source of truth.


Guy Hatchard PhD was formerly a senior manager at Genetic ID a food testing and certification company (now known as FoodChain ID). Website: HatchardReport.com.

Guy is the author of ‘Your DNA Diet: Leveraging the Power of Consciousness To Heal Ourselves and Our World. An Ayurvedic Blueprint For Health and Wellness’.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of DTNZ.

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  1. When it comes to economics, everyone agrees that most of their predictions and forecats are just BS. Even NYT propagandist media agrees.


    The so called scholarly journals also agree and appreciate the limitations of ecomomic decisions based on models and past data.

    Daníelsson, Jón (July 2002). “The Emperor has no Clothes: Limits to Risk Modelling”. Journal of Banking & Finance. 26 (7): 1273–1296.

    When compared to economics, the interaction of human biology, evironment, nutrition, medical, health and epidemiology is million times more complicated and hard to fully understand .

    Yet all of the governmental agencies, big pharama and the MSM act as if they are sure of the solutions to the pandemic issues (mandate jabs, force masks etc).

    Wonder why? May be it was just a plandemic….

  2. When I paid tax I thought it was going to be used for hospitals, schools, to assist the unfortunate and poor, help the old, to pay for infrastructure, looking after the environment, police to protect the public. I never thought it was going towards paying off main stream media to withhold factual information like this article, the mongrel mob, the police who bash peaceful protesters and set their tenants on fire.

  3. Modellers in 2020: OMG guys, there are going to be thousand and thousands dying in the streets. Our hospitals will be severely overrun!! ????

    Modellers in 2021: The sky is falling! THE SKY IS FALLING! Vaccinate yourselves and repent now for the end is nigh!!!????

    Modellers in 2022: OMG guys, the NEXT pandemic is gonna be SO bad, maybe even WORSE than the last one! We need to change all those stupid freedom laws and give more power to our leaders ????

    How does anyone still listen to these idiots when they keep being proven wrong over and over and over.

    Just shut up and go away

  4. Thank you Guy,

    I have two humble requests, please cite you data graphics with a caption linking to the source if possible, please make sure the graphs in these articles are readable and not blurry.

    Thanks Guy!


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